Treaty on Eternal Friendship between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan – New Growth Opportunities for Azerbaijan

Rufat Gambarov, Country Director at Synergy Consulting, Inc., shares his insights on “Treaty on Eternal Friendship between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan – new growth opportunities for Azerbaijan."

The recent signing of the Treaty on Eternal Friendship between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan could mark the beginning of a much deeper economic relationship. The two countries have set an objective of increasing bilateral trade turnover to $1 billion by 2030.

Ambitious—but I believe the bigger opportunity is to go beyond trade and build a joint investment and production corridor.

The two economies are highly complementary. Uzbekistan brings scale and growth. With around 38 million people, its domestic market is almost four times larger than Azerbaijan’s. Real GDP grew 8.5% in H1 2026, while fixed-capital investment reached around $28 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year.

Azerbaijan brings capital, connectivity and infrastructure. Its financial buffers, strategic Caspian location and established transport links give it a strong platform to connect Central Asia with Türkiye and European markets.

This is where the Middle Corridor becomes much more than a transit route. It can become the backbone of an Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan investment corridor:

• Uzbek companies gaining access to Western markets through Azerbaijan
• Azerbaijani and international capital participating in Uzbekistan’s industrial expansion
• Joint ventures across logistics, manufacturing, agriculture, energy and digital services
• New regional value chains connecting Central Asia and the South Caucasus

The financial dimension is the key over here. Azerbaijan can use its sovereign financial strength not simply to finance projects directly, but to crowd in private capital through co-investment, guarantees, project finance and investment partnerships.

For Uzbekistan, this means greater access to capital and markets. For Azerbaijan, it means leveraging its balance sheet, infrastructure and geography to participate in one of Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies.

So the real opportunity may be much bigger than the $1 billion trade target. Trade can be the starting point. Investment, infrastructure and industrial cooperation can be the multiplier.

That is how Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan can create a genuine win-win economic corridor—and turn the Middle Corridor into a platform for regional growth, not just transit.